The NHS will struggle to meet its target of delivering £20 billion in productivity improvements by 2015 according to The King's Fund's latest quarterly monitoring report.
Only 1 in 10 (10%) of NHS finance directors surveyed for the report rated the chances of meeting the target as better than 50/50. The majority (56%) identified a high or very high risk that the target will not be met, while a third (34%) rated the likelihood of success as 50/50. The survey – which includes finance leads from clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) as well as Trust finance directors – highlights the growing pressures on NHS providers. Only a third (33%) of Trusts surveyed expect to meet their cost improvement targets for 2013/14 – a sharp fall on the same quarter last year when nearly three-quarters were confident of meeting their targets. Commissioners are more optimistic, with 72% of CCG finance leads expecting to meet their organisation’s targets. Other key findings from the analysis of NHS performance data include:
• The number of healthcare-acquired infections continues to fall, with 398 cases of C. difficile and 24 counts of MRSA recorded in June 2013. Waiting times for hospital treatment remain stable, although the median waiting time for outpatients has crept up to more than five weeks, its highest level since January 2008.
The proportion of patients waiting more than four hours to be admitted from A&E to hospital (‘trolley waits’) fell back to 4.5% in the last quarter but remains high by recent historical standards. The number of delayed transfers of care remains stable, with 3,999 delayed discharges recorded in June. The survey of Trust finance directors and CCG finance leads also found that:
• The vast majority (89%) expect their organisation to be in surplus or to break even in 2013/14, with 11% expecting to be in deficit.
• Nearly a third (31%) said patient care in their area had got worse over the past year, compared to 14% who said it had improved and 55% who said it had stayed the same.
• Nearly three-quarters (72%) were pessimistic about the prospects for their local health economy over the next 12 months.
Professor John Appleby, chief economist at The King's Fund said: “Now just over half way through the so-called Nicholson Challenge, it is clear the NHS will struggle to meet its £20 bn productivity target, with potentially serious consequences for patient care.”
